Who Will Win “Grammy Bump” of the Year
The Grammys, like any awards show, are subjective. Each voter has their preferences, and those influence their selections. But one of the most interesting Grammy distinctions is the objective one.
Which artist is most likely to have the strongest Grammy Bump?
The Grammy Bump is the economic lift that an artist has as a result of their Grammy award or nomination. Our friend of the pod, economist and author Will Page, released a 2024 report, What is the Economic Value of a Grammy in Today’s Music Industry?, which broke down this exact question.
Here’s an excerpt from Page’s report:
“Across two years, a Grammy award can help boost live and recorded income by over $7 million. For emerging, niche, or mid-tier artists, a Grammy can be transformational…
This will result in growth in recorded income from $900k to $1.8 million…An award can help touring income grow from $1.5 million across two years to $8 million.”
Jon Batiste may be one of the strongest examples in recent years. Jon Batiste won in 2022 (ceremony held in April 2022 for 2021 releases). To be clear, Bastiste was already a success. He had won an Oscar, Golden Globe, and performed in the house band on The Late Show With Stephen Colbert, but the Grammys’ top prize took his career to another level.
Batiste has since performed at Carnegie Hall, been the subject of a Netflix documentary, American Symphony, performed the national anthem at the Super Bowl, and more.
But like most artists, the largest Grammy Bump came from touring. Before that Grammy win, Batiste never did a traditional tour; he was focused on festivals and one-off performances. He’s since done two tours, Uneasy Tour and Big Money Tour, at amphitheater-level venues like Red Rocks in Colorado, Encore Theater in Las Vegas, and Radio City Music Hall in New York. My conservative estimate is that those tours grossed around $500,000 in ticket sales per show at the bigger venues.
So, who’s the next Batiste? Who’s next up for that Grammy Bump?
The artist from 2026 who has the best chance is Leon Thomas. The 33-year-old R&B singer is far more seasoned than his Best New Artist nomination implies. He’s a former child actor who has made and written music with the industry’s biggest stars for over a decade. His earliest mixtapes date back to 2012. But this has been a noteworthy breakthrough year. His hit single, “Mutt” continues to resonate with fans. He received six nominations and could be gearing up for a big night.
Thomas has yet to headline his own concert tour. He currently has over 14 million Spotify monthly listeners, which is more than fellow album of the year nominees Clipse and its members Pusha T and No Malice. Thomas is clearly not “unknown.” he has a bigger mainstream platform than Batiste did at this time, but there’s plenty of room to have the type of economic lift that we’re talking about.
Speaking of Clipse, they’re my runner-up pick. The brothers are certified legends in hip-hop. They were the first rappers to perform at The Vatican, recently completed a 22-city tour, and have several shows and festivals already booked through 2026.
Could a major category Grammy win or memorable performance at the show give the duo a Bump in demand that leads to bigger venues and larger guarantees in the future? Will it increase rates with future partners? “Yesterday’s price is not today’s price,” which comes at a timely moment. The brothers paid a seven-figure sum to buy themselves out of their Def Jam contract to be fully independent artists.
The Grammy Bump of the Year winner won’t be decided the night of the show. It also won’t be decided for the week after the streaming Bump. The next week's streaming stats are great for headlines and awareness, but the real economic lift, as Will Page’s report suggests, can be measured in the two years after the awards.
We will check in on Leon Thomas, Clipse, and the other nominees in 2028!